Blue and yellow permutations: What Sweden need to progress from Group F

[p]Sitting third in the group ahead of kick-off on three points, [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/sweden/OQyqbHWB/"]Sweden[/a] are a point behind both [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/japan/ULXPdOUj/"]Japan[/a] and the [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/netherlands/WYintcWb/"]Netherlands[/a], while eliminated [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/tunisia/QqZVYk95/"]Tunisia[/a] lost their opening two matches heavily. Here, Flashscore goes through what Graham Potter's side need to do in order to reach the knockout stages.[/p][h2]If Sweden beat Japan...[/h2][p]If [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/game/soccer/japan-ULXPdOUj/sweden-OQyqbHWB/?mid=Sl2xgtXi"]Sweden beat Japan[/a], by any score, [b]they will finish in the top two of Group F and qualify for the Round of 32.[/b] If Netherlands get an expected win over Tunisia, Sweden will finish second in the group. If Sweden win and Tunisia manage to draw with or beat the Netherlands, the Swedes will finish first in the group.[/p][p][b]A second-placed finish will set up the daunting prospect of a Round of 32 clash against [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/brazil/I9l9aqLq/"]Brazil[/a][/b] in Houston - the scene of the 5-1 loss to the Dutch - but things don't get any easier by winning the group, as [b][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/morocco/IDKYO3R8/"]Morocco[/a] would lie in wait in Monterrey[/b], though Sweden at least have happy memories there from the Tunisia victory.[/p][embed guid="39e64ca6-1205-42b5-8e70-b6005c9bccf0" url="https://x.com/svenskfotboll/status/2069885692251885700" social-type="twitter" /][h2]If Sweden draw with Japan...[/h2][p]If Sweden draw with Japan, [b]they will finish third in the group on four points[/b]. Japan would stay a point clear, and Sweden have no chance of overtaking the Netherlands even if Tunisia pull off a surprise, owing to head-to-head record being used in favour of goal difference as the first tiebreaker at this tournament.[/p][p]However, [b]it is now known that a draw will be enough for Sweden to be one of the eight best third-placed teams in the World Cup[/b]. Four points and a goal difference of zero will put them above [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/bosnia-herzegovina/fqe7WYTr/"]Bosnia & Herzegovina[/a] in the ranking of third-placed sides. Bosnia are currently the only side assured of finishing in the top eight, thus a better record will make Blagult sure of a top eight finish, even with nine groups still to be concluded at time of writing.[/p][p]In this scenario, Sweden would have to wait and see from which groups the other top eight teams come from to discover their Round of 32 opponents.[/p][h2]If Sweden lose to Japan...[/h2][p]If Sweden lose to Japan, [b]they need not worry about losing third place in the group[/b], as their victory over Tunisia means the North Africans cannot overtake them. However, qualification gets a lot more complicated, and will likely come down to the margin of defeat.[/p][p]Before Sweden take on Japan and the [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/game/soccer/netherlands-WYintcWb/tunisia-QqZVYk95/?mid=0lERfdRh"]Netherlands face Tunisia[/a] simultaneously, Group E will conclude with [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/game/soccer/ecuador-8tbm8Tri/germany-ptQide1O/?mid=zmvgtcCa"]Germany meeting Ecuador[/a] and [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/game/soccer/curacao-bLLGpOkQ/ivory-coast-G2FRjBgn/?mid=d2S1vysC"]Ivory Coast facing Curacao[/a]. [b][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/ecuador/8tbm8Tri/"]Ecuador[/a] and [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/curacao/bLLGpOkQ/"]Curacao[/a] are on one point each, meaning failure for both to win will see Sweden edge closer[/b] to one of those top eight spots.[/p][embed guid="5f388e17-bf94-4d62-a95c-2b96566677d7" url="https://x.com/FIFAWorldCup/status/2070084595194662988" social-type="twitter" /][p][b]A Swedish defeat by just one goal[/b] will also go a long way to securing a knockout stage place, but not guaranteeing one. In that case, Sweden will be ranked higher than [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/south-korea/K6Gs7P6G/"]South Korea[/a] and [a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/team/scotland/fZRU25WH/"]Scotland[/a], two of the three sides whose group campaigns have finished and thus cannot overtake the Swedes.[/p][p][b]A defeat by two goals[/b] will see Sweden drop to fourth or fifth in the rankings, depending on what happens in Group E. [b]A defeat by three goals[/b] will see them slip to seventh or eighth, while [b]a loss by four or more goals[/b] will see them drop to eighth or ninth come the full-time whistle.[/p][p]Even in the worst-case scenario of dropping down to ninth, [b]Sweden's World Cup would not be automatically over[/b], as sides yet to play their final group games could still lose and push Sweden back into the top eight on goal difference, providing they stayed in third in their groups.[/p][p]The good news is, no matter what happens tonight, Sweden will not be on the plane home tomorrow![/p][p][b][a href="https://www.flashscore.ca/game/soccer/japan-ULXPdOUj/sweden-OQyqbHWB/?mid=Sl2xgtXi"]Follow Sweden's match with Japan on Flashscore.[/a][/b][/p]